Star Wars: The Last Jedi Eyes a Projected World Wide Take of $425m for Opening Weekend.
The opening of Star Wars: The Last Jedi is nearly upon us and reviews are streaming in giving positive word of mouth ahead of the film being unleashed this weekend. All that is left now as we wait to actually see the movie, is for boardroom executives and amateur box office prognosticators everywhere to start studying tracking feedback and pre-sales numbers to play the highest stakes guessing game in the industry…opening weekend gross. And to that end, we have a trio of interesting pieces out today.
First and foremost is this report from THR on the projected box office for this weekends release. Tracking numbers for domestic gross have been in for a while, with the projection having The Last Jedi come in at approximately $200m. That would put the third release in this new Disney era right in the middle, as it falls below The Force Awakens, but above Rogue One. But even if the film falls short of 200 by a bit, the number will be nothing to shake your head at, as it will still likely to be in the top 5 of all time domestic opening weekends.
The new info in the piece comes in the form of projected international box office for opening weekend. THR pegs that at about $225m for a grand total of $425m. Again, as with the domestic haul, this would put The Last Jedi not quite at the top of the list, but somewhere in the top 5 of all time.
What we can be pretty sure of is that The Last Jedi is likely to take the mantle for top domestic opening of 2017 (while not quite taking that title for worldwide due to the enormous international numbers on the most recent Fast & Furious release). Fandango released today (via Box Office Pro) that The Last Jedi officially has taken the title for top pre-sale film of the year. And in a year where under-performance at the box office has been the norm, The Last Jedi is looking to buck that trend and make studio executives across the industry happy as they head off on their holiday vacations.
But if you are looking for reasons as to why The Last Jedi might not quite reach the box office heights of The Force Awakens, look no further than this very interesting Forbes piece. In it, Forbes examines the dynamics at the box office that are conspiring to form a less hospitable environment than what The Fore Awakens experienced 2 years ago.
From Forbes:
But there will be one obstacle of note this time out. Unlike last time, Star Wars: The Last Jedi won’t be remotely the only “big” family-friendly/kid-targeted movie in town. This isn’t to say “The Last Jedi is doomed!” or what not, but there will be a different set of variables this time out regarding demographic competition. When The Force Awakens opened two years ago on this weekend, it was the only major family-friendly movie on the calendar that had made/would make much of an impact.
But in Mendelson’s typical fashion, he plays devil’s advocate on his own piece as Forbes also released a similar article, this time looking at factors that may help The Last Jedi over-perform.
From Forbes again:
If Star Wars: The Last Jedi ends up performing closer to The Force Awakens than presumed, we shouldn’t underestimate the appeal of seeing its two most popular characters in major supporting roles. Hollywood may think that audiences prefer the rogue over the hero, but Harry Potter didn’t need to be a jerk to save the day. None of the “fellowship of the ring” had to be selfish pricks to win over fans, and audiences will accept a classically decent/trying to be better Sherlock Holmes on Elementary as well as a borderline sociopath version on Sherlock.
Both Forbes pieces are interesting in their own right and worth your time, if you are into these box office battles at all, as Forbes does a great job of breaking down the various factors that go into determining a final box office result.
Stay Tuned to SWNN as we head into the weekend where we’ll keep you updated on the box office tallies as well as all the other news coming out of opening weekend.
(Beware, while this article does not contain spoilers for The Last Jedi, there might be spoilers by readers in the comments section below)
The Force Awakens had the same tracking numbers as Last Jedi based on the numbers released a couple weeks ago. I think $200 Million is waayy low. My guess is the domestic take will be $235 Million minimum. I think people will be more afraid of The Last Jedi being spoiled than The Force Awakens and will try to take it in this weekend.
Agree, with all the hype, I’m expecting it to have a better reception than TFA. One would think TFA flopped with most of the comments. I don’t think those people will be complaining about the same thing. Perhaps they will find something new to complain about. This looks to really move the film in ways fans have wanted. I don’t really know myself, can’t wait to see it tomorrow.
Well about that…
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/323/481/ced.png
TLJ has become the new most divisive SW film if you haven’t read the comments of SWNN’s review of the film.
On my way to the theater right now but not looking forward to see the projection across the galaxy and or Superwoman and other funny stuff…
More Mary Poppins than Superwoman… yeah that was weird.
Unfortunately, once you’ve seen it, you can’t un-see it.
It’ll make bonkers at the box office. This will track to be the second highest grossing Star Wars film *not adjusted to inflation of course*. Possibly the new highest grossing film in North America which would place it at close to 1 billion dollars.
These numbers are extremely safe and conservative. TLJ is going to shatter everything; at least in North America!
Super. It’ll be a down payment on the $52b they just spent.