Forbes: Three takes on The Force Awakens Box Office Projections
Last week Forbes ran a three day series doing a deep dive into projections for The Force Awakens box office. The pieces get very detailed by examining opening weekend trends and multipliers, historical precedents, cultural relevance, and worldwide acceptance of the property. With those factors in mind, the series was split into three pieces over three days. The first taking a pessimistic approach to determining potential box office, followed by an optimistic take, and finally a realistic take. Itâs a fascinating look into the potential high end, low end, and everything in between of what is in store for The Force Awakens from a financial stand point
The pessimistic forecast takes the approach that Star Wars is not what it was in 1999 and that audiences outside the US donât embrace the property as much as with some other recent record breakers.
But the notion of a new Star Wars film in theaters ten years after Revenge of the Sith is a lot less potent than the notion of a new Star Wars film 16 years after Return of the Jedi. When George Lucas brought Star Wars back, it was basically the only game in town. Now it is merely among a number of big-budget fantasy franchises.
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The pessimist says that mid-December will still have kids in school, college kids prepping for finals, and adults busy finishing up Christmas shopping. And even adjusted for inflation only Return of the King has ever topped a $100m opening in December ($73m in 2D back in 2003). So letâs say The Force Awakens, which will of course have 3D, IMAX, and PLF bumps and a relatively empty December thus far, opens to a record-smashing $115-$125 million. That would be a massive increase over the old record and by far the most tickets sold for a December debut. But what then?
The optimistic forecast looks at the scenario where everything lands perfectly at the right time. A huge opening weekend, great reviews, and a consumer base ready to embrace what JJ is sellingâŚ.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be the biggest movie ever, will sweep the Oscars, and fix climate change while creating a cheap user-friendly way to turn seawater into drinkable tap water.
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Hereâs how Star Wars: The Force Awakens ends up reaching top-tier expectations in terms of domestic and worldwide box office. It opens like a summer blockbuster, but possesses legs like Christmas blockbuster. As I have discussed any number of times, the âpre-Christmas weekendâ weekend is the best spot on the calendar to open a movie, because you get your opening weekend followed by two weeks of glorified weekend-ish weekdays as the kids get out of school and many parents get large chunks of those two holiday weeks off from work.
Finally the realistic forecast looks at a more reasonable series of events where The Force Awakens has a great opening weekend for December, but fails to break opening records resulting in significant box office success, but not reaching the top of the all-time charts.
Iâve got a reasonably good feeling about thisâŚ
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Okay, I still think in this scenario that Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens to around $125 million on opening weekend. Yes, a $150m debut wouldnât shock me either (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire did $158m in November), but thatâs such an uptick from whatâs normal in December that Iâm hesitant to predict as much.  Even $125m is a huge jump from the record $84m debut of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. But the difference is in terms of reception and legs. If the film opens with around $125m and has legs closer to Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows or Alvin and the Chipmunks than I Am Legend or The Desolation of Smaug, then you get what amounts to a top-tier result that still doesnât quite break any all-time records.
Only time will tell which of these comes to pass, but for those who like playing the box office speculating game, these pieces give some fascinating ideas to chew on as we read the tea leaves in advance of the first Star Wars film in a decade.
Source: Forbes
All three are wrong. The question is, how much higher than $3 billion will it make worldwide?
Star Wars is not that popular worldwide as it is in USA.
It’s about to be.
Nothing but Michael Jackson and Kobe Bryant are, but it’s big, and very very very big in U.S.
Kobe who?
Erm yes is it is!
No it is not. I’am not from USA and Star Wars is not very popular here.
Dinosaurs are actually way more popular here. I doubt that TFA will make as much money as Jurassic World. Or even close.
I think force awakens will open at $135 Million and end up making about $2 Billion worldwide when all is said and done. Just a guess though. We have seen that social media is making critic response-time faster. If the move sucks, audiences will hit the breaks imediately and decrease that sum by 25% or more, and if the film is GREAT that will also sway the numbers and give TFA a better shot at breaking records
With the amount of hype, it only has to be better than TPM to break records.
None of this has any reasonable objection behind the predictions. For one, no way does the Star Wars franchise have Any similarities with the Hunger Games.
And if you take into consideration, the opening toy sales alone, a new Star Wars movie is already showing it’s pre-sales worth in merchandise sold.s
There are so many other factors that suggest this new movie will have an incredible opening weekend.
Yep. When adjusted for inflation, the first three Star Wars sequels (including TPM) have made over $700 million in the US alone (the original movie sits at somewhere above $1.4 billion). Multiply that time 3 for over seas and we’re looking at $3 billion or so.
I’d be willing to bet anything, that the midnight opening will be completely sold out in every international showing. Especially now that tickets will be available October 19th. I have no idea what that sum will total, but I predict those sales alone will top the $150 million mark.
I dont think these critics quite understand the excitement behind this movie. Where as films such as Avengers or Hunger Games thrill a range of people, they dont have the openess Star Wars has. This is a movie that will have the die hards coming back again and again (possibly multiple times in the opening weekend. Casual movie goers who only see one movie a summer will choose this one. And even the normally uninterested will be caught in the hype of this and flock to see what all the fuss is about.
I would put my money on this obliterating records
Yes I think many are missing the fact that while Avengers is great and people like it, it doesn’t have that deep base of hardcore fans. People go to see Avengers and go “that was fun” and maybe rent it one more time once it’s on video. Star Wars is another animal.
It will smash records, the question will be will it be good enough the Episode 8 follows suit, I’m not so sure.
How many of those other brands can pull off a Force Friday!
Let’s get serious.
Im curious to know if JJ and LK actually have an entire trilogy planned out, or did they write 7, and be like “next man up, continue the story where we left off” or if they indeed do have a timeline planned.
I kinda think that Ep. VIII will do even better. Sequels tend to make a lot of money these days, so unless this TFA is bad, VIII will make at least as much money, possibly more.
Anything is better than Attack of the Clones. Unless they cast Paul Blart I don’t see how it would be any worse.
I disliked Attack of the Clones, and still went to see it 4 times in theaters. Because, you know…. new Star Wars.
Attack of the Clones is so FREAKING AMAZING that sound of the Seismic Charges is the BEST EVER on the cinema history and Count Dooku “making family” on his fight was epic
NOTE: to “make family” = to beat every other opponet.
Had JJ Abrams not directed TFA, and had John Boyega not been hired, and had Daisy Ridley not been given the lead role and had Captain Phasma been a man, and had The First Order been madeup of White British men like The Empireand had Lupita N’Yong not been made the new Yoda…..had none of these things happened, then yes, I would agree that TFA will set indeed smash all historical box-office records.
Judging a film before it’s come out is a poor decision, my friend.
I agree. There’s too much PC in TFA that will prevent it from smashing the box office.
Obvious troll is troll.
Yeah I don’t get the weird group that’s either on this site or just following Star Wars in general that are clearly against diversity.
This new form of trolling that focuses on sexism and racism is annoying. I miss the days of… “Nerds! Get out of your mom’s basement!” Seems like paradise compared to now.
YEah. In the past it was OK to bully the nerds but nowadays it is forbidden to do the same with gays and races…
Not entirely sure what you are on about. It’s certainly not an equivalence..? Though ideally you wouldn’t bully anyone.
To me the hype has to be at least as high as the prequels for one reason. This is the first post Lucas Star Wars. For people who were turned off or people who still love it as much as always… we can all come together again for this movie. That and it’s a great starting point for new comers.
So long as it’s decent or above… I can see repeat viewings being a thing.
I’m sure the movie will do well and might even overtake Avatar but the only thing I want to know is WHEN WILL WE GET THE NEW TRAILER?
You know it can’t be long now. It finally going to be the one that teases the story right? I mean… I’m hyped out of my mind for that freaking trailer!!
Fall technically starts in two days so… đ
Gotta be coming soon….someone give me a rumored date to go off of
It seems like the closer we get to Dec 18, the LESS rumors we get.
My guess, based on nothing but my own speculation, would be that they either premiere or “preview” the new trailer during the season premiere of Rebels, October 14th, then attach it to Bridge of Spies, which comes out 2 days later on the 16th and is distributed by Disney. That would also be just a few days before theaters start selling advanced tickets on the 19th. It’s all just a guess, like I said, but it makes sense. It will majorly boost the viewership for Rebels, and it will help promote the advanced ticket sale.
Actually, I feel we’ve been waiting for this movie for over 30 years. I want to know what happened with the New Republic after the Empire fell! (And see Luke, Leia, & Han again!)
They already have my 100$
Star Wars is going to….listen….DESTROY 200 million opening weekend. Sure, the common sense route says “115-130” million weekend domestic but…I have a gut feeling that that amount is going to be a VERY VERY conservative number and much much lower than what it’s actual take is going to be. I see the kids in the store looking at the toys in wonder, I feel the buzz in the air about this movie….200 million aint shit (even with a December release) for this movie. Trust me, this thing is going to break the world.
I agree. The only way it won’t do that is if early reviews are horrible, and even then it will be the largest December box office ever. Everyone is curious about this film, and the hype is huge. I think a continuation of the saga has a larger draw than the prequels. Plus, the IMAX deal will rake in oceans of cash.
If the movie is good (which I think it will be, seeing the love their pouring into it), then it will easily become the biggest movie ever. At least until Ep. VIII comes out. đ
Well my friend we couldn’t be any more in agreement because im totally on board…honestly…the movie CANNOT be bad. For as much as JJ Abrams is stressing that they worked their asses off on it (he’s said it in numerous interviews) if the film still turns out to be bad even with JJ Abrams best efforts then I have no clue what to say. With that said, the movie is going to be a world beater, I don’t want to put any limits on its capabilities, it’s the biggest movie franchise ever, stars are the limit.
And we can’t forget that JJ is a SW fanboy. He feels the pressure, but more importantly, he WANTS to make a great movie out of this.
People always complain about what he did with Trek … but that was mostly that he made it too actiony, too witty, too flashy compared to the more cerebral experience that Trek historically has been.
But SW at its best IS actiony, witty and flashy. I see no reason to have a negative opinion about his involvement, but haters gonna hate.
They’ll change their tunes once this puppy drops.
Lets be honest…if your benchmark to overcome is episode 3 revenge of the sith….you wouldn’t have to work your ass off to surpass that lol.
Nope. And that should quell all doubts … because they are all working their asses off to make this great.
#brofist
you’re the man mitch.
Right back at you, my brother!
Judging a film before it’s come out is a poor decision, my friend.
Open-minded positivism based on the details so far released is superior to disdain for the cast & crew with no solid basis.
Tell me, what have you seen of the film that makes you think it will be bad? What have you seen of Boyega in this role that makes you hate him? Of JJ as a director that makes you think he’ll do a bad job? Did you not like the trailer?
Because everything I’ve seen looks great and feels great. Period.
But, hey, haters gonna hate.
What if Luke Skywalker is only in it for 10 seconds in the final scene and OT fans won’t like that?
I’m an OT fan and honestly I didn’t care if the original cast returned at all. I’m glad they are there but I still fear their presence more than rejoice over it đ
Still all the promotional stuff has kind of assuaged my fears with them. Everyone seems in top form. I’m ready for a new beginning with a younger cast.
As long as we know he will be in the story eventually it’s cool.
Episode VII will SMASH the box office..nuff said!!
What is this dude talking about? This is the kind of movie people neglect important life things for. Episode 7 will destroy the Box Office and break records.
this writer hates anything both popular and with batman in it
This is Star Wars. No way it won’t smash through records.
I’m expecting it to be mediocre, but I’m hoping for it to be great. I’ve had my expectation that such a high level lately, I just need to remind myself of the Phantom Menace, but did it meet my expectations? Unfortunately, I left the theater scratching my head wondering if i liked it. After time it grew on me, and I do like it, but I don’t love it. Prepare yourself to be Phantom Menaced.
i disagree…plhantom menace at least wasnt some new hope 2.0
No. It was Return of the Jedi 2.0.
I’d rather have a Phantom Menace than a Star Trek-ed New Hope 2.0.
I love everything I’ve seen so far, so I plan to watch the film at least a dozen times in theaters. I wonder if anyone plans on boycotting the film.
I’ve heard plenty of people claim they plan to boycott the film so I’m sure at least a few will, but most will cave in if TFA turns out as good as we hope. I think some people will hang back just in case they get a chance to pull an “I told you so” with JJ and Disney. Not me though- I’ll be there the first possible show and at least 2 or 3 additional times to see it with friends and family
It amazes me there are people already hating on this with nothing more than two trailers and speculation to go on. Yet you’d think they’ve seen it. Baffling to me.
a star wars reboot has more of a chance to get 2 billion
I think in actuality Star Wars VII will…. be one of the three options listed by Forbes.
There, my comment was just as pointless as the author’s speculation.
the buzz exists with fans , outside of that its mostly “ho hum” … if it does make money it will be existing fans going multiple times (ill never understand why) ….. most kids love the toys , not the films. (once had a mates kid do the classic “im not watching this if i have to read” in the first 2 mins and go out on his bike instead.)
going to beat all records
I think this has a chance of beating Gone with The Wind
On the buildup to The Phantom Menace, I was nothing more than a little intrigued. Eventually went to see it towards the end of the first week run in the cinema, and left the cinema feeling totally underwhelmed. That trend continued with Attack of The Clones and Revenge of The Sith. My feelings towards The Force Awakens are the polar opposite. More aligned to the anticipation I felt towards the release of The Empire Strikes back and Return of The Jedi way back in the early eighties. From the snippets that have been released so far, I believe J.J. has re-captured the magic of Star Wars and will score box office gold. Planning on seeing the movie twice on the 17th.
Here is why The Force Awakens will break $3bn Worldwide ….
1. There is a pent up demand for this movie….a kind of nostalgia among the public. Average movie goers want to re-connect with these iconic characters & this universe in a way they couldn’t with the prequels.
2. Star Wars has universal appeal and will play strongly in territories like Japan and boost the worldwide gross.
3. JJ Abrams does not not direct poor movies :-
Into Darkness 87% RT
Super 8 82% RT
Star Trek 95% RT
MI 3 70% RT
4. It’s Star Wars !
5- And it’s Star Wars!
That too !
Even my old man, who is now in his 70’s, is going to the flicks to watch this, and the last time he went the flicks was when he took us as kids to watch the originals when they first came out in there respective years!! Now thats nostalgia for you!!!
Finally, someone talking some sense!
Also, while I was disappointed with how the series ended, the pilot episode for Lost was pretty great too.
And MI3 is still one of my favorite MI films.
In all honesty I don’t care if SW7 breaks records or not. I just hope the movie is great. The anticipation has been great so far. It is everywhere I go. Shops, markets, online etc. But I think the film should be good considering JJ worked with a team of star wars fans. They’ve been working hard to get it right. Lucas dictated the prequels with little or no outside feedback. And it shows on those films that his focus was more on special effects and visuals rather than the acting. I still like the prequels but after analyzing them I came to that conclusion.
So it will either be a great success, or a disappointment, or a reasonable success. Thanks Forbes.
I just want the movie to be worthy to carry the Star Wars name the rest will come.
I’ll support the optimism view!
I’ll camp out in the realistic view, but I’ll lean towards optimism. I think opening weekend will smash the record for that specific time of release, but I don’t think it will be the biggest opener ever. However, I also feel like this movie has the potential to win the long game. But all this depends on how good the movie is. The fact that it is Star Wars is a huge factor as it has a massive fanbase. Disney’s financial success on Force Friday also tells me that opeing weekend will be huge, but word of mouth is gonna win the long game for the film. How good the movie is will ultimately be the deciding factor. On a side note – I want to only be paid in Yoda Bucks from here on out – can we make this happen?
This is where I am too. Somewhere between options 2 and 3. I expect a big opening weekend and decent legs. But the opening weekend won’t be historic. And the film will have steeper weekly drop offs than Titanic or Avatar barring universally great reviews and re-watchability. Maybe something around 150-175 opening with a final tally somewhere around and hopefully passing Avengers and Jurassic World domestically. Worldwide gross is too unpredictable at the moment. As the article says, they are rushing to get the previous 6 films out in China because they don’t have huge exposure there. Lack of interest in China would have serious impacts on worldwide gross.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it does more. Bu I don’t think the cultural sentiment is primed to accept it as much as it was pre-PT. Tent Poles have become common place. Star Wars may have the biggest tent, but its far from the only circus in town these days. And the inevitable backlash from those who get sick of hearing about it will temper its long term gains
I expect it to break all time (to adjust for inflation) box office records. If it doesn’t I will be like Oh Oh Oh oh O
Oh Oh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd8QkZncr0A&feature=youtu.be
https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/oh-oh-single/id987546204
I think that this version of Star Wars will hearken back to the originals so much that there will be massive repeat business. I have not gone to less than 15 times to any Star Wars movie played in a Theater. I doubt I will change now. I know many people who are as determined as I. Now my all time record was Episode 5 The Empire Strikes Back. I saw that a record 45 times. Is The Force Awakens going to challenge that record? Only Time will tell.
If it’s a great Star Wars film,like Empire great then Avatar and Titanic better watch out.The Gen1 fans alone will make sure of that,won’t just be one or two showings over its run,it will be double figures in the first month easy and if it’s out for two or three months then that a once a week for me.
Take every theater in the world that’s going to show this film, count the number of seats available for each showing, multiply the number of seats by the cost of the tickets in that particular theater and that particular country, and total all those figures up. That’s how much money this film will make, because I don’t foresee any empty seats in any of those theaters for opening weekend.
i agree. i dont think these businessman truly understand the power of star wars films. its going to be seen by everyone if they love it or hate it. no one is gonnna be the one person that didnt see it. its going to more than just a film like lame hunger games. its a cultural movement. lets see what they say after the preorder tickets and 7:00 showings sell out. its going to be seen multiple times. i plan on seeing it at least 3-5 times in different formats
The preorder ticket sales is a good marketing strategy. You know they’re going to sell out fast and Disney will make sure they publicize that. The more scarce the tickets seem to be, the more likely people will scramble to preorder one for themselves. I have to stay away from the internet for a couple of days because I don’t want to see any spoilers coming from those who have seen the film overseas a day or two before it opens here in the US. I’m also planning on wearing my ear buds and blasting some music into my head while I’m in line at the theater as well, so that I don’t accidentally hear any of the story line while I’m waiting to get in the theater.
Nostalgia is a very powerful emotion and there are a lot of people my age and older that spent their childhoods dreaming about what would happen after Ep. 6 (under the assumption that we would never truly know)
These people are all adults with careers now and even if they are not hardcore fans, once it gets closer and it becomes more immediate the buzz is going to be unreal.
So true. I’m in my 40’s and grew up with the original trilogy. It was like a religion to me and my brother and cousins, didn’t care to much for the prequel’s but still saw them at the theatre on opening day, but me and all my friends and work colleagues that grew up with star wars are so psyched for this that are work’s christmas party this year is a curry and seeing this on opening night!!! (Providing tickets are available that is, oh and not in the order stated above, see this first and then a curry. Have to be considerate at christmas.)
Sounds like a fun group of people to work with! đ
I’m in my 30s and planning to see it with my fellow adult friends, and maybe a few of their older kids at a midnight screening. … And my friends aren’t like me checking this site daily, they are just casual people who saw Harrison Ford in the trailer, and have no idea what anyone else’s name is, what a BB-8 is, etc. And they are all in already.
I was an unemployed teenager when the first film was released. Imagine all of those teenagers and younger children who fell in love with the OT who are now working adults along with their children who were brought up loving those films and who are also employed. That’s a lot of spending power in the hands of those who loved the OT. If anyone is like me, they’ll be going to the theater to see this film more than once. I’m hoping to see it twice on the 18th. I’ve even requested the day off from work just so that I can see it on opening day. I have two friends who want to see the film with me, so I thought I’d bring them each individually to see it.
I understand the fact that the fantasy/sci-fi genres are chock full of franchises in this day and age, but this is Star Wars. There’s no way that the Hunger Games, Alvin and the Chipmunks or any of The Hobbit trilogy films could hold a candle to what this movie will make. Everyone I know is excited for this movie, whether they consider themselves Star Wars fans or not. A huge majority of moviegoers have nostalgic connections with this franchise. The first installment of an entirely new saga is bound to break records, no doubts there.
I understand the fact that the fantasy/sci-fi genres are chock full of franchises in this day and age, but this is Star Wars. There’s no way that the Hunger Games, Alvin and the Chipmunks or any of The Hobbit trilogy films could hold a candle to what this movie will make. Everyone I know is excited for this movie, whether they consider themselves Star Wars fans or not. A huge majority of moviegoers have nostalgic connections with this franchise. The first installment of an entirely new saga is bound to break records, no doubts there.
The author isn’t saying TFA will have box office similar to those movies. He is using those as historical precedent for other December releases to predict crowd patterns after opening weekend. Looking at other December movies can help predict week over week drop off.
The opening weekend multiplier is the basis of most box office projections. But the variable is opening weekend, which the author readily admits will be significantly higher than any other December release. Its by how much that determines the eventual total.
Every blockbuster movie that sells out every seat for the entire weekend is limited in the amount of money it takes in by the number of theaters it’s playing in. The more theaters it shows in, the greater the box office take for that “sold out” weekend. With every IMAX screen in the US showing SWTFA for a month, that should help.
Everyone I know doesn´t care or does not even know about SW7TFA. People are living the life, not hyping a fantasy movie just like big sick people like us.
Forbes is a hack job, always injecting their opinion on things like they run everything or could do better. Forbes, nobody cares about your opinion.
2 months + and still no official poster. Grief
Except for the one they presented at Celebration.
$175-$200 first weekend. I’ll sign for it IN BLOOD.
So… even the box office forecast was a TRILOGY…..
That being said, The Opening weekend of a film isn’t indicative of the overall boxoffice earnings. The highest grossing film of all time only made $77 during it’s opening weekend. I am referring to Avatar, which still holds as #1 at $2.78 billion. AND, Avatar ALSO opened on December 18th….. so.. yeah.
I also remember reading that all IMAX theaters for a month would only be running Star Wars. I, myself, plan on seeing it many many times, in many formats. First one probably being my new MPX theater with Dolby Atmos.
I may in fact break my vow to never see a film in 3D that wasn’t shot in 3D. I remember reading that Into Darkness was a brilliantly post-converted film…. so i assume Star Wars will be as well. (Although, i think i already broke my vow, as i saw Gravity, and thought it was the BEST implementation of 3D i have ever seen… and it turns out it was post converted XD, Although.. i don’t see how i could have thought it would have been shot in 3D…. most of it was CGI)
Yeah man Gravity was awesome in 3D.
It’s too bad they didn’t finish the prequel conversions. I didn’t what they did with episode 1… but I know that whole opening space fight in revenge of the sith would have looked awesome in 3D…. I got dizzy at the time watching them pan down looking at the star destroyers over Coruscant at the time.
…and then they started speaking.
Here’s the thing. Star Wars is not “unique” anymore. There are several “superhero” franchises now, with each hero displaying more power than any Jedi. People are going to be underwhelmed.