Solo: A Star Wars Story is set to open big this Memorial Day weekend, and may very well set a four-day record. For a movie that supposedly nobody asked for, flying by the previous record is a pretty good target.
Deadline is reporting that Solo is currently tracking for an opening above $170M over the weekend lasting from Friday to Memorial Day Monday, over four days. That should translate to a smaller three-day total than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story when you take the Monday out of the equation, but that’s still a great opening that’s more than enough proof that annual Star Wars movies are easily sustainable for Disney. The previous record-setter for the four-day weekend is 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($153M), which is closely followed by Lucasfilm’s 2008 movie Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($151.9M).
Right now, unaided awareness is ahead of Rogue One and Marvel Cinematic Universe movie Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; the actual metric put the story of Han’s rise to prominence in the criminal underworld at 28 versus the 23 that both the Star Wars spin-off and the Marvel sequel had at that same point in time. Speaking of Marvel, definite interest in Solo exceeds Spider-Man: Homecoming at 55 versus that movie’s 53. Both Marvel movies made over $300M domestic while Rogue One cleared $500M.
Bear in mind that this projected opening is coming off the heels of the highly-anticipated Deadpool 2, which, while R-rated, is tracking for a $100M-$150M+ opening weekend depending on how that movie’s Saturday and Sunday go. If Solo is able to perform so strongly in spite of being on the trails of a competitor’s superhero movie, then that should be a very good sign for its box office prospects overall. (There’s relatively little competition for Solo in the three weeks afterward as well, so that’s another plus.)
Provided that Solo is able to make these numbers and hold over well in subsequent weeks, the Star Wars spin-off ought to do defy the odds in spite of its known production issues. But, it’s as Han Solo said back in 1980: never tell him the odds!