Early Tracking For Star Wars: The Last Jedi Puts Sequel At $215M Opening Weekend

Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi is looking at an absolutely massive opening weekend based on early tracking, with the second-best opening in the franchise’s history more or less in the bag.

 

(Full disclosure – parts of this article have been lifted from an article that I wrote on this very subject for Heroic Hollywood. However, I’d like to go a little more in-depth here.)

 

According to BoxOffice.com, early estimates for the eighth installment of the Star Wars series could clock in at an incredible $215M. An opening of that size would be just ahead of the unexpectedly-large $208.8 million haul that Jurassic World took back in Summer 2015 and would make the Star Wars movie the fourth movie in history to open above $200M in a mere three days. The Force Awakens will likely retain its status as the highest-grossing Star Wars movie stateside, as that picture opened to $247.9M. Should it meet this milestone or exceed it, the top five biggest opening weekends of all time in the United States and Canada will be as follows:

  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $247.9M.
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $215M.
  • Jurassic World – $208.8M.
  • The Avengers – $207.4M.
  • Avengers: Age of Ultron – $191.2M.

As for the movie’s legs at the box office, they’re looking to be nearly as impressive as those for The Force Awakens, which ended its American/Canadian run at an awe-inspiring $936.6M – 3.77 times as much as what the movie made on opening weekend. The same report suggests that The Last Jedi could end its theatrical run at $742M, which is another great multiplier at 3.45 times what the movie hypothetically makes opening weekend. When all is said and done, according to this scenario, the top five movies at the domestic box office will look something like this:

  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $936.6M.
  • Avatar – $760.5M.
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $742M.
  • Titanic – $658.6M.
  • Jurassic World – $652.2M.

It should still be noted that this is an early estimate, as pre-release numbers could increase or decrease depending on how audience interest changes as the film gets closer to hitting the silver screen. For now, an estimate of a $200M+ weekend is fairly realistic, and it will be very interesting to see what kind of legs the movie has following the opening weekend. As for the estimates of how the film will do internationally, that appears to be a good question for another time – but given that Disney’s spent upwards of $200M on this movie, even a $600M+ domestic haul would likely be seen as a big win by the studio.

 

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Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.

Grant Davis (Pomojema)

Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.

46 thoughts on “Early Tracking For Star Wars: The Last Jedi Puts Sequel At $215M Opening Weekend

  • October 21, 2017 at 4:18 am
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    I’m impressed it’s that high an estimate. Although TFA’s was estimate waaaay lower than what it turned out to be.

  • October 21, 2017 at 6:35 am
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    Impressive stuff.

  • October 21, 2017 at 7:08 am
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    I was expecting that TLJ will make between 75 – 85% of what TFA did. These numbers look higher than expected…..hmmmm. I am gonna guess even higher: 221 million opening and 825 million domestic, with 1.88 billion WW.

  • October 21, 2017 at 7:40 am
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    Can’t wait. i just got my free TLJ poster in the mail! I have tickets for the 14th, but i am going to also buy tickets for the 15th in a couple weeks.

    On a side note… i am happy that Solo is still getting a May release date. thought for sure that the director change would have pushed it back

  • October 21, 2017 at 7:48 am
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    Between The Last Jedi Trailer and JJ talking about going somewhere new in 9… I’m pumped.

  • October 21, 2017 at 8:07 am
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    Leia is snoke snoke is leia

    Omg Leia is an old fossil

  • October 21, 2017 at 8:40 am
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    TFA was tracking at about that when it opened. Needless to say, it blew expectations. Hopefully this will, too.

    • October 21, 2017 at 12:03 pm
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      If I was a Disney shareholder I would second that opinion.

  • October 21, 2017 at 9:44 am
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    With TLJ on track to make these kinds of impressive numbers, I won’t be surprised to see Solo get bumped to December 2018. I know Disney is saying Solo is locked for May 2018, but if Last Jedi has the long legs and the impressive domestic and international haul of The Force Awakens, these two Star Wars films will just be on top of one another. I think Disney is gonna decide to let these films have some breathing room…. And give Ron Howard some additional time for post production on Solo.

    • October 21, 2017 at 10:55 am
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      A Solo delay is not gonna happen. It could, but it won’t – because they don’t need it.

      What the box office needs is a Memorial Day Weekend worth a damn, and Star Wars will deliver that.

      – Pomojema

      • October 21, 2017 at 4:20 pm
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        Plus, a month gap between the release of TWO Star Wars movies.

        Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

    • October 22, 2017 at 1:30 am
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      I don’t think Disney would want to miss out on a summer hit. If TFA was able to make the money it made by opening a week and a half before Christmas, a stretch when everyone is too busy to see movies (that’s why I went to TFA and R1 alone :c), imagine how many ticket sales they’d get from releasing in the prime film release season.

  • October 21, 2017 at 11:04 am
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    Both ESB and AotC dropped about 35% when compared to the first installment in their respective trilogies and, ignoring the theatrical release of “The Clone Wars”, AotC went on to be the lowest grossing movie in the franchise.
    It should also be noted that TLJ will hit theaters at the end of a somewhat tiresome year, in terms of big tent pole movies, and right after Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League.
    With this new box office prediction, accounting for the fact that RO had a good WW performance but didn’t hold all that well on the chinese market, and all things considered, I’d be inclined to be slightly less optimistic, placing the US box office at 700-720 m, and the worldwide performance in the 1.5 b range (which would still bea huge success and an improvement, compared to both ESB and AotC performances).

    • October 24, 2017 at 4:05 am
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      That drop between ANH to ESB is EXTREMELY misleading. ANH was re-released into theaters twice after its initial box office run before ESB came out. Prior to those it had grossed about 220m or so. It was only after the subsequent releases that it hit 300m. ESB did 209m in its initial run. They were a lot closer than the numbers indicate.

  • October 21, 2017 at 12:01 pm
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    Wonder what the actual cost of the film is vs the amount it’s likely to take in just one weekend. How long till it’s in profit?
    Normally you would take the marketing into account, but the Star Wars films don’t seem to require any 😀

    • October 21, 2017 at 2:34 pm
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      Well, the marketing campaign for The Force Awakens DID cost almost as much as the movie itself…

      • October 23, 2017 at 8:43 pm
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        Which is ironic to me because you would think that Disney cut cut costs in marketing knowing people are going to see the movie no matter what!

        • October 24, 2017 at 12:22 am
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          Hooking an entire generation (and their families) into a franchise is worth that much, forever.

  • October 21, 2017 at 12:34 pm
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    Here we go again.

    • October 21, 2017 at 7:18 pm
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      Yep, let’s judge how good a movie is by the money it makes, so by those standards I guess Titanic is the wet dream of all film critics and movie aficionados, and Blade Runner 2049 is crap. Twisted world we are living in, indeed.

      • October 22, 2017 at 1:24 am
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        To be fair, Titanic is pretty fucking good.

        • October 22, 2017 at 3:27 am
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          Maybe Avatar would be a better example.

        • October 23, 2017 at 3:50 am
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          Really? Ok

      • October 22, 2017 at 2:16 pm
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        To be fair to Titanic, it did win 11 Oscars, and was nominated for a further 3. No film is yet to better it. It also was the highest grossing movie of all time (for 12 years), until Avatar bettered it.

        But personally, give me any of the Blade Runner movies any day of the week.

      • October 22, 2017 at 5:26 pm
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        Quite bad examples you’ve picked. Critics raved about Titanic, it was nominated for 14 Oscars after all.
        On the other hand critics panned the original Blade Runner…

        • October 23, 2017 at 3:49 am
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          I chose one of the 3 highest grossing movies of all time, how can that be a bad example? We’re talking money here. About the Oscars, I’ve heard many SW fans say they do not matter (especailly when TFA didn’t win one) so they matter now? In the end, I don’t care about gross revenue or peer accolades, I want a good movie, I’d like an artistic project with soul, period.

          • October 23, 2017 at 11:44 am
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            I can’t believe I have to explain your own argument…
            You made the assessment that Titanic was not the wet dream of critics when in fact it was. Otherwise it wouldn’t have been nominated for 14 Oscars and it wouldn’t sit on 88% on RT today.

            You should have picked something like the chilséd Transformers series for this boring argument.

          • October 23, 2017 at 9:04 pm
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            Avatar then, ok? I did not start the boring argument, but all TFA aplogists have been quick to point out for two years now that if its the highest grossing movie in the USA and one of the top in the world, then it must be really good… NO, period. And even if critics loved TFA (which they did) does not mean it is a good movie. Fun popcorn flick? Maybe, classic “Gone with the wind” good? NO.

  • October 21, 2017 at 4:46 pm
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    If this movie is as good as I think it will be, it could beat those numbers. TFA didnt have the legs it could have had if it had been a better movie.

    • October 21, 2017 at 6:01 pm
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      It was a good movie. You don’t make 2 billion and become the highest grossing film in American history If people aren’t seeing the film multiple times.

    • October 21, 2017 at 9:50 pm
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      It had insane legs. It literally had the highest ever domestic opening and still only dropped 40% in its second weekend, not to mention that it made nearly $1 billion in America alone. So your claim is pretty BS, honestly.

    • October 21, 2017 at 9:56 pm
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      I stand by what I said. Yes it had good legs, it was the first Star Wars movie in a very long time and it was enjoyable to watch. Really it could have been a turd and done well. The point still is imagine what it could have done if it had actually been a good movie.

      • October 21, 2017 at 11:23 pm
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        It was loved and adored by critics and fans alike. Again, your claims hold no water, so I don’t know why you continue to spout them.

      • November 17, 2017 at 4:14 pm
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        By any measures that actually count, it was a great movie. The box office receipts were extraordinary. Both critical and fan reaction was overwhelmingly positive. Because of TFA, the Star Wars brand has been rejuvenated in a way that must be beyond even the most lofty expectations. Vocal, anonymous Internet complainers don’t much matter.

        But yes, maybe if TFA was a “good movie” it would have made 220 billion or something. : /

    • October 21, 2017 at 11:06 pm
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      Except it had very good legs to say the least. It’s the second leggiest 100m+ opener behind Shrek 2. Considering TFA has the biggest domestic OW of all time, it’s pretty damn impressive.

      There isn’t really much bad you can say about TFA’s financial achievements…

  • October 21, 2017 at 5:31 pm
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    Very impressive numbers. If this is true TLJ could make 800m+ with TFA legs, which would mean around a mere 15% domestic loss to TFA.

    That would be a huge improvement over the prequels (~28% from TPM to AotC), especially considering how oversaturated the market is nowadays…

  • October 21, 2017 at 9:49 pm
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    Holy crap, that’s huge.

  • October 21, 2017 at 10:58 pm
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    while other studios stumble, disney continues to print money. incredible.

  • October 22, 2017 at 1:23 am
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    Is this including ticket prepurchases, or no?

    • October 24, 2017 at 3:41 am
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      It’s there early guesstimate based on trailer reaction/views, twitter and Facebook metrics and the early ticket pre-sales. It’s not an official estimate.

  • October 22, 2017 at 1:54 am
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    I gotta admit I’m surprised. I thought the 30 year wait, return of the original cast and pure mystery of what the heck was going to happen helped fuel the box office for TFA.

    Meaning I thought there would be a steep fall off for TLJ.

    • October 22, 2017 at 3:26 am
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      I think there will be. The analysts are obviously not Star Wars fans, so they are basing their analysis on TFA.

      I don’t think TLJ will reach above $200M in its first weekend.

      • October 23, 2017 at 3:23 pm
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        analysts are not Star Wars fans (Which is why they are more likely to be right) and they are basing their projections on both the past and the current trends.
        The estimates come from interest, presold tickets and history of movies like this.

        They know more than you do.

      • October 24, 2017 at 3:46 am
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        It’ll easily do 200+ OW. Their 215 guess is solid but I see it doing 220-225 and finishing a head of Avatar with about 770-780m

  • October 22, 2017 at 5:33 pm
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    Maybe just something to consider: I got a bit tired of Marvel or DC movies and this kind of blockbusters, so I don’t use to go to cinemas to watch them anymore (same for most of my friends). But Star Wars is something different. I will go more than once, and this friends of mine that never go to cinema nowadays will go to watch it (some of them more than once too). There is still something special with Star Wars, and now you have a few generations going to watch it and loving it. Probably the main worry of Disney is still Chinese market, because if they get to make Star Wars great there, there will be huge number on TLJ (I don’t know what they did in China during this two years to increase it).

  • October 24, 2017 at 4:09 pm
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    It’s going to be higher than that. I’m basing this soley on anecdotal evidence but my wife was not that excited about Ep7. She went and ended up liking it. Now she’s real excited about Ep8. So are my kids who were luke warm about the whole thing at first. So I think you still got the people who wanted to see more Star Wars but the characters were strong enough combined with trailers that were strong and intriguing… I think we have a lot of new people excited about this new generation of Star Wars.

    So that’s my guess… over 215. 225 at least.

    Who knows for sure? It’s fun to gamble!

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