Star Wars: Rogue One Projected for a $130M+ Opening Weekend.

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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story already seems to be in a lock for the second-best opening in the franchise’s history, with fairly conservative estimates suggesting that the movie will crack $130M on its opening weekend in the United States and Canada.

 

 

From Variety:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is on pace to open to more than $130 million, according to pre-release tracking… Some box office agencies and tracking services have Rogue One opening even higher. If it hits those projections, Rogue One will enjoy the second-biggest debut ever for a December release. The record belongs to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which kicked off its run with a $248 million bow last year. It went on to become the highest-grossing domestic release in history, earning $936.7 million in the U.S. and $2.1 billion globally. Disney, the studio behind the Star Wars franchise, has lowered expectations for Rogue One. Company head Bob Iger has said the studio is not expecting the film to do Force Awakens-level business because it exists outside of the main narrative about the Skywalker clan.

 

With this projection in mind, Rogue One will also be the second movie to have a $100M+ opening weekend in the month of December. We’ll probably get a better idea of how the movie is tracking once Disney finally makes ticket presales available – which they’ve neglected to do thus far for reasons unknown – as long as they release figures on how those do before the movie comes out. A good guess at when they might actually get that to happen in the United States is Thanksgiving night, as Disney has promised viewers of their television special an exclusive look at Rogue One.

 

 

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Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.

Grant Davis (Pomojema)

Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.

31 thoughts on “Star Wars: Rogue One Projected for a $130M+ Opening Weekend.

  • November 22, 2016 at 11:02 pm
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    Im going to guess 150.

    • November 23, 2016 at 1:56 am
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      I’m guessing $140.

    • November 23, 2016 at 2:29 am
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      I think it will hit 200, honestly. If the film ends up being good fun and not utter garbage, I still think it’ll get up to 200.

      I get that it doesn’t have the Big 3 draw in it.

      But it has Darth fricking Vader. And if there’s any hint from initial goers that he freaks out and lightsabers people in the face after opening night, there will be a rush.

      This is me being hopelessly optimistic.

      • November 23, 2016 at 2:48 am
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        Idk, I think it’s more likely it surprises us with its overall gross than opening weekend. Word of mouth and all.

        • November 23, 2016 at 4:05 am
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          Agreed.

      • November 23, 2016 at 3:52 am
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        The Big 1 ( Darth Vader ) will draw them in….

  • November 22, 2016 at 11:08 pm
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    I wish they did better marketing for people who think this is episode 8. I know they showed Death Star and Vader, but obviously there are not many smart people that can count 2 + 2, cause I still see comments on Youtube like: When this takes place, is Rey recasted, and where is Finn, this is third Death Star or even ”Vader is back from the dead”. They should simply put at the beginning of trailer ”Before A new hope” or something like that, and I’m sure, movie will get at least 1,2 billion worldwide at the box office

    • November 22, 2016 at 11:24 pm
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      Uh, the fact that this is tracking like it is, is proof that people understand that this is not Episode 8. Otherwise, it would be tracking even higher!

      regardless of anecdotal comments from youtube (the dumbest place online), it’s clear people get that this is not the next one

      • November 22, 2016 at 11:33 pm
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        “YouTube (the dumbest place online)”

        I think Twitter would give it a run for its money. 😉

        • November 23, 2016 at 12:40 am
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          Nah, not even close. Twitter has some brilliant minds. youtube is the dregs.

          • November 23, 2016 at 1:55 am
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            Twitter is also full of people with strangely intelligent 8 year-olds who hate Trump. It’s a pretty hilarious place.

          • November 23, 2016 at 2:49 am
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            Have u seen Pablo’s feed? 😉

          • November 23, 2016 at 4:11 am
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            Yes. And I maintain my stance.

      • November 23, 2016 at 2:31 am
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        I’m sorry sir, you’re going to need to tuck that opinion away.

        The dumbest place online?

        It gave us the likes of Pewdiepie. Need I say more to defend the brilliance delivered unto us? I think not.

        • November 23, 2016 at 4:11 am
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          haha

    • November 22, 2016 at 11:26 pm
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      They are not very big fans if they don’t know that, and there are plenty of other fans that will fill them in.

    • November 22, 2016 at 11:35 pm
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      I’m very curious to see if this film makes better in roads into China than TFA did.

      • November 22, 2016 at 11:36 pm
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        I’m pretty sure it will, cause Donnie Yen is one of most beloved actors there, and they have pretty good marketing in China

    • November 23, 2016 at 12:10 am
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      Maybe that’s why they are not making any marketing now, they people to think this the continuation to last year’s movie….

  • November 22, 2016 at 11:32 pm
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    I know nothing about box office but that seems conservative.

    • November 23, 2016 at 12:03 am
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      I agree with you. I’m not saying that it’ll crack $200M OW, but I do think it’ll make a few more millions than that.

      – Pomojema

    • November 23, 2016 at 1:54 am
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      I’m guessing $150 million max, but with lengthy December legs.

  • November 22, 2016 at 11:44 pm
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    I still don’t think we’ll get any ticket news on Thanksgiving night (hope I’m wrong). I’m guessing the exclusive is the featurette that was released last week. This will be the same scenario when ABC said a three minute trailer for Rogue One would air during the Force Awakens doc and they just showed the sizzle reel from Celebration.

    • November 23, 2016 at 12:00 am
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      In Scandinavia (at least Sweden and Denmark) the tickets for Rogue One were released yesterday (Monday). Since the premiere over here is on the 14th I guess not too long until they’ll be released in NA as well.

  • November 23, 2016 at 12:27 am
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    how are they tracking it if tickets haven’t gone on sale yet?

    • November 23, 2016 at 1:53 am
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      Social media activity, precedent, comparable films, the like.

    • November 23, 2016 at 7:50 am
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      Trailer views, Twitter mentions, Facebook likes, theatre screen count, etc.

  • November 23, 2016 at 1:52 am
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    More proof that Disney is destroying Star wars, as they clearly haven’t been advertising Rogue One. No one even knows that this movie is being released. This film will probably flop like The Force Awakens did. /s

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