Update! Disney Breaks Its All Time Global Box Office Record. Episode 7 Box Office Discussion and How Disney Will Profit from the Christmas Release.

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Two very good articles from a few days ago about the Episode 7 box office results and how Disney could benefit from the so called delay. It really makes you believe that the December release is actually a brilliant move…


Update!

Today, Disney will break its previous global box office record of $3.971B set in 2010–& this party has just begun, folks. #marvel #starwars
— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) November 12, 2013


With “Thor: The Dark World” dominating worldwide, the studio tops the $3.79 billion mark it set in 2010

Disney is about to break its global box office-record of $3.791 billion, the studio said Tuesday.

With “Iron Man 3,” “Monsters University,” “Oz the Great and Powerful” and “Thor: The Dark World” providing the biggest boosts, the studio will sometime on Tuesday push Disney past the benchmark established in 2010 to its best year ever in terms of worldwide grosses.

In July, Disney was the first studio to reach the $1 billion domestic box office milestone for the year, its eighth consecutive year. In August, in record time, Disney hit $2 billion at the international box office for the fourth year in a row, and in early November the studio broke its international box office record of $2.3 billion, also set in 2010.

Source: The Warp 

Imagine what will happen in 2015 – Episode 7, Avengers 2, Ant-Man, Tomorrowland, Finding Dory (?), Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (?), Inside Out, Cinderella… 

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And speaking of box office…

The Forbes article about the Episode 7 box office:

We’ve all heard that Disney has finally wised up and moved J.J. Abrams’s Star Wars Episode 7 out of its presumed pre-Memorial Day 2015 slot and into December 2015. Since Disney is also bumping Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland from December 2014 to May 22, 2015, one presumes we now know when Star Wars was supposed to open. Yes, this is the first Star Wars film not to open in mid-May just before Memorial Day, but the big news is the specific date that Disney did pick, one that now puts Star Wars Episode 7 in a prime position to challenge James Cameron for the domestic box office championship.

It’s Friday December 18, 2015, or the weekend before Christmas, otherwise known as the single best release date of the year. I’ve long argued that the pre-Christmas weekend, either the 50th or 51st weekend of the year depending on the calendar, is the best weekend, bar-none, to open a film. You get your blockbuster opening weekend if the film can muster it, but you also get the kind of legs unmatched by any other period. You don’t just get legs associated with Christmas and New Year’s, but you get whatever you can muster on opening weekend followed by two weeks of weekdays that act like weekends. Since pretty much every school kid in America is off starting that Monday (December 21 in this case) if not earlier, you have basically the rest of the year to pretend like every day is Saturday.

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This isn’t just about the obvious blockbuster debuts that have marked this period in the last twenty years or so in the past. They are plentiful, including Titanic, The Fellowship of the Ring, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, I Am Legend,  Avatar, and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. These films took their solid debuts and used the holiday period to turn strong word-of-mouth into absolutely scorching weekday business. The only thing more exciting than an opening night screening of Titanic or Fellowship of the Ring was a Monday morning before Christmas screening of Titanic or Fellowship of the Ring after the word got out. And over the long vacation period, you can be sure that large groups and large families will be checking out that new Star Wars film after they open the presents or in between trips to buy their gifts or return their gifts over the end of December.

This is also about would-be blockbusters that maybe didn’t open as high as studios had hoped.  King Kong parlayed a $50m Fri-Sun debut ($66m Wed-Sun) into a $209m domestic final (4.18x weekend-to-final multiplier) off of this weekend in 2005 while Tron: Legacy turned a $44m Fri-Sun debut into a $172m domestic total, or a 3.9x multiplier. And Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows may have “underwhelmed” with its $40m debut (compared to the first film’s $62m Christmas debut), but it still used the holiday period to manage massive legs and close with $180m, or a 4.25x multiplier (bigger than the first film’s 3.3x in Christmas 2009). Outside of this prime season, most of those films would have been thrilled with 3.0x weekend-to-final multipliers, but in the holiday weeks they thrived.

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Disney can hope for Star Wars Episode 7, which is opening on the same day as Avatar, to play in a similar fashion.  Assuming it’s even remotely good, the film will absolutely devour the holiday season over the last 2 weeks of the year. It will likely drop just a bit  from its debut weekend to Christmas weekend, and again suffer a relatively small drop over New Year’s weekend. It will peak after the new year but will likely have, on average for larger debuts, 3.5-5x its opening weekend by the end of its third frame while studios will surely keep the beginning of January clean in fear of the Empire , giving Star Wars clear sailing at the start of 2016.

Let’s say Star Wars Episode 7 debuts with $125 million, which is on the lower end of expectations but let’s remember that the record for a December debut is $83m set by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey last year. A minimum 3x multiplier gets you $375m, while even a Hobbit-y 3.6x gets you $451m. while a Tron: Legacy/King Kong-ish 4x multiplier snags you $500m. Give Star Wars a plausible $150-$175m debut weekend (if Hunger Games can do it…), and well, you do the math. Okay fine, just offhand, $150m x 4.5 = $675m domestic. Or, okay, let’s go nuts… $175m x 5 = $875m.  Likely?  I suppose not, but frighteningly plausible considering the history of this weekend.

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Business Journal‘s article on how Disney will profit from the delay:

Speaking as a fan of both Disney and Lucasfilm: Getting upset about the delay is like getting mad at Santa Claus for taking his time down the chimney with your Millennium Falcon replica. You know, the one with the movable laser cannons and authentic movie sounds.

Unfortunately, there is more to this saga than the patience of the fans. Making movies is a business, and the business world does not look favorably on delays. They are an admission of a mistake. They show a lack of confidence in the process. They make investors nervous. And so on. Which is why Disney announced the delay along with an encouraging earnings report.

However, this delay will work in Disney’s and Lucasfilm’s favor. And not because of some mystical energy field that binds the galaxy together. Or even because of pixie dust. Here are five reasons why the delay is just good business.

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• Haste makes waste: Disney’s purchase of Lucasfilm set social media on fire with speculation. Several fans still believe the Disney magic will dilute The Force and change the appeal of the resulting films. But pushing back the release date shows Disney’s commitment to taking its time and producing a superior product. Sticking to the original release date, especially after a production shake-up, which resulted in J.J. Abrams sharing writing duties with Star Wars royalty Lawrence Kasdan, would make Disney’s lack of flexibility disturbing.

• Avoiding the crowd: A new Star Wars film will be a big deal no matter when it’s released. But there is already a big line forming in the opening-day queue for summer 2015. Disney will be releasing the next Avengers movie and Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland that season. And franchises like Jurassic Park, The Hunger Games and Terminator also are returning to theaters at that time. Waiting until the field has cleared will make Star Wars stand out even more. Besides, it was the release of the first Star Wars film in May 1977 that started the summer blockbuster trend. Why not start the new chapter by re-writing the book.

• Putting the hype in hyperspace: Along with more production time comes more promotion time. And not just for themed monorails on Disney property and online movie trailers. I’m talking about revenue-generating events. Events like the Star Wars Celebrations and Star Wars Weekends at Disney’s Hollywood Studios represent a plethora of opportunity for teasers, meet-and-greets and sneak peeks. If there were additional pre-release events in Walt Disney World and Disneyland parks, the fans would follow.

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• Anticipation pays off: Is a rock band punctual about the time it takes the stage? Is the ribbon cutting on time at a grand opening event? No. Why? A waiting crowd is a fired-up crowd. And a fired-up crowd will be happy and willing to consume once their patience is rewarded. Promotional events aside, the fans generate their own hype. You want proof? Jar Jar Binks toys sold after the Phantom Menace was released. Now I’m definitely not implying that J.J. Abrams will give birth to Jar Jar Junior. In fact, what he and Kasdan will give us is bound to be much better. So there’s no wrong in giving the fans a little more time to build their own hype by imagining what could be.

• Merry Christmas to all: Making the new Star Wars film a holiday gift to the fans is just the sentimental gesture a new parent company needs to keep the kids happy. Then there are the benefits of the resulting retail rush. Just imagine the legions of Star Wars fans — kids, parents and memorabilia collectors — finally getting the long-awaited seventh chapter of the saga. Then being offered a fresh Star Wars merchandise push in the midst of the holiday shopping season.

 
Christmas 2015 can’t come soon enough… 🙂

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Founder of SWNN, MNN and The Cantina forums.

Born on April 24, 1980.

Val Trichkov (Viral Hide)

Founder of SWNN, MNN and The Cantina forums.Born on April 24, 1980.

38 thoughts on “Update! Disney Breaks Its All Time Global Box Office Record. Episode 7 Box Office Discussion and How Disney Will Profit from the Christmas Release.

  • November 12, 2013 at 10:51 am
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    Just think of what a December release will do for Star Wars merch…….

    Not to mention what it will do for Disney stocks, coming off of Avengers 2 that summer.

    The Force will be with Disney on this move…….

    • February 4, 2014 at 6:19 am
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      Mark my words all, episode 7 won’t come out in 2015 it will be released May 2016!! As we were then!!

  • November 12, 2013 at 11:18 am
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    well since we cant have a little fun in here, i will just say the boring logical truth…. ” Its all about the money “, regardless if the movie is bad or good… the most important thing to producers is the first 2 weeks at the box office.. after that, they dont care if the movie is remembered or not…. its all about the green…

    • November 12, 2013 at 2:07 pm
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      Actually, they do care if it’s remembered (good) or not. Why? Because they have two more other movies coming out in the years afterwards plus the spin offs.

  • November 12, 2013 at 11:37 am
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    Any thoughts on IF Celebration VII will be pushed back a few months now since the movie’s release date is later?

    • November 12, 2013 at 11:58 am
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      That’s a good ?…….

      It seems like it would be better, but only time will tell…….

    • November 12, 2013 at 12:50 pm
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      I hope that too. November looks like best month now.

    • November 12, 2013 at 1:58 pm
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      Screw that! I wanted to stick around Annaheim after celebration for 420! I can’t be the only person making those plans.

  • November 12, 2013 at 12:49 pm
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    Great move by the disney. And that is last date. From 2017 avatar 2 will premiere there. I guess 2018 2010 will be Star Wars Christmas and 2017 2019 2021 will be avatar Christmas

  • November 12, 2013 at 1:15 pm
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    I’m not even sure why the comparison is being made, as if it were ever a question of which was better. Star Wars is going to swamp Avatar in box office earnings. Avatar relied entirely on peaking audience interest and hooking people in with astounding special effects and 3D, because they were trying to introduce something new to the world. With Star Wars, they have the element of familiarity on their side. Everyone and their mother will see this movie whether it’s awesome or terrible; it’s new Star Wars. The story branches out over several generations. That being said, the Christmas release will certainly work to disney’s favor, even though Christmas will mean absolutly nothing that year. The world’s eyes will be on Star Wars. I’d personally still like to see a May 2016 release, but it’s all about earnings.
    I really hope Celebration doesn’t get pushed back. I was planning on hanging out in Annaheim 16-19 for celebration and sticking around the area for 420. we all know California will be in uproar with all those festivities going on 😉

    “TK420, why aren’t you at your post?”

    • November 12, 2013 at 1:36 pm
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      Plus, people make hotel reservations very far in advance. To make adjustments to those arrangements could mean losing your reservation and chance to attend celebration. I highly doubt they’d do that to all of the people who have already planned everything out.

    • November 12, 2013 at 9:07 pm
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      Lucky for me I don’t need to be in Caly for 420 ; )…….

      But I doubt they will push back Celebration VII. If you push it up to November then it becomes like the Super Bowl, and can only be held in certain places (warmer).

      And that WILL NOT BE COOL!!!!!!!

      Every time there is a celebration it should be held in a different location,
      like it has been.

  • November 12, 2013 at 4:18 pm
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    I have very little doubt that Disney will do right by Star Wars. They are aware that, while the brand is still relatively strong, the prequels weren’t exactly stellar. I’m sure they were thrilled when Lucas sold them the franchise, and if the Marvel films are any indication, they won’t meddle into the creative process too much, if at all, in order to help produce the strongest product possible.

    • November 12, 2013 at 4:29 pm
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      If they do any meddling, it’ll certainly be appropriate. Afterall, it’s being developed by OT fans like us. Abrams probably shit in his cereal hen they asked him to direct the movies. I think they’ll realy think through every little detail before constructing the full story. That’ll help them to avoid any unnecessary fan “turn-offs.”

    • November 12, 2013 at 6:45 pm
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      Disney is so huge a corporation, they don’t care if the product lacks quality. They had hide a bad film’s faults well by advertising and merchandising. For example, I did not think Tron: Legacy, Thor 2 and IronMan 3 were particularly good. Definitely not classics, and (do I dare say it?) not even as good as the prequels; the prequels were only perceived as “bad” movies because Star Wars fans approach this film series like a religion. But apart from dialogue issues, Episodes I, II, and III were just fine.

    • November 12, 2013 at 7:30 pm
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      I’ll agree with you that those movies weren’t Disney’s best and that the prequels were definitley better when comparing them to the films you listed above, but this is a completely different subject. Episodes 7, 8 and 9 are being developed by die-hard Star Wars fans and a lot of people that worked on the OT and prequels. This isn’t a disney team doing their interpretation of what comes next in the Star Wars universe, this is really just a very high budjet, well produced fan film. The sooner you pessimistic bozos start seeing how much the pros outweigh the cons in this situation, the sooner you’ll realize that we’re in trustworthy hands.

    • November 12, 2013 at 7:32 pm
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      It’s not like when Marvel and Lucasfilms were bought out by Disney, the companies were completely demolished and rebuilt. You have to actually take real factors into consideration instead of vomiting bullshit assumptions.

    • November 12, 2013 at 7:41 pm
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      By the by, I don’t think the prequels are bad, I just think they’re not nearly as good as the OT. There were LOTS of bad segments and inclusions in the prequels, but I’d say they’re all worth watching once in a while.

  • November 12, 2013 at 4:49 pm
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    Avengers 2 opens May 1st. Disney will not allow it’s two biggest franchises to compete with one another. As stated above, this is for money, pure and simple. Blog posts such as this generate buzz and so on, thereby feeding the machine. The movie will be whatever it is, but it will be designed well enough to bring people back, over and over again to see it, rest assured.

    • November 12, 2013 at 9:17 pm
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      Hmmm…. let me see here

      So your saying that Avengers 2 would open on May 1st and if Star Wars opened on may 15th they would be competing….

      By may 15th everyone who wants to see Avengers 2 will have already seen it!

      A films most important time is the opening weekend & 1st 2 weeks! After that it’s only a matter of days before it’s pulled from the Theater.

      Their would be no competition!

  • November 12, 2013 at 4:57 pm
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    Standing in line is gonna be a lot harder to do in December.

    • November 12, 2013 at 10:09 pm
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      I know!

  • November 12, 2013 at 7:45 pm
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    This is practically a Star Wars reboot. Yes it’s actually a continuation but either way it’s a brand new fresh take on Star Wars. That’s a juggernaut in and of itself. Now tie that in with this perfect launch window? Now just imagine it doesn’t suck… imagine it’s actually outstanding…

    Fans will go back to see it again and again… This could be the most successful film of all time if they play their cards right.

    Please don’t suck! Reignite my flicking fandom flame JJ!

    • November 12, 2013 at 7:47 pm
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      ^^^ I like this guy!
      That’s what I’m talking about!

    • November 12, 2013 at 8:02 pm
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      You’re also the guy who “feels my pain” lol. I comment here often I just don’t have any accounts anywhere to make me not Anonymous 😛

    • November 12, 2013 at 8:33 pm
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      If you’ve got a Gmail account, thats what I post through. It’s better than showing up as anonymous when you post regularly.

  • November 12, 2013 at 8:37 pm
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    2015 will certainly be a monumentous year for movies all-around.

  • November 12, 2013 at 11:50 pm
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    Yaaaa!!! Everybody excitied!!!!! I am so excited for Star Wras Ep VII! Going to be best movie of all times! Bettr than citizen kane! better than godfather!!! i cant believe this will happen, this is best time for being star wars fan. I think this will be without one doubt better move than Amazing Spiderman (2012) Amazing Spiderman 2 (2014) and Amazing Spiderman 3 (2016)… also maybe even better than Amzing SpiderMan (2018), only the clock will tell. Great news for star Wars fans all around the world!!! Star Wars Ep VII The Order Reborn will make so much millions! Infact there is no doubt in my brain will be first movie in the history of the times that will make $1 trillion dollars! I will be anybody this.

    • November 13, 2013 at 2:42 pm
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      Where did the title “The Order Reborn” come from?
      It’s got a nice ring to it.

  • November 12, 2013 at 11:51 pm
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    *bet

  • November 13, 2013 at 12:24 am
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    I think $ 1.8 – 2.0 billion is very likely – good move Disney……

    • November 13, 2013 at 2:24 am
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      Maybe they can make a whole bunch of Star Wars movies and help pay down our debt. Could get some good tax creds?

  • November 13, 2013 at 11:41 am
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    My original view: Wanted SW7 ASAP so May 2015 it had to be. Devastated to hear problems with production and talks of a delay for release!
    Now: I’d rather it be delayed if necessary to ensure the end product is going to be better. So bring on Xmas 2015

  • November 13, 2013 at 9:26 pm
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    Ahh, this all bullshit.
    SW7 will stink & bomb, trust me.
    Then George Lucas will come in off the bunch & hit a grandslam
    with a movie based on the wacky exploits of “Opie & Anthony”.
    SLOBBOOOOOOO!

    • November 13, 2013 at 10:23 pm
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      You’re quite a positive person… Unless you have some real info to base your arguement off of, don’t come trying to seem like you’ve got all the answers by saying the movies going to suck and that I should put my hopes and trust in you. Why the hell should I trust that the new installment of my favorite film series since I was a child is going to be terrible? Because I have lots of reasoning as to why the movie will kick all of you pessimistic blow-hards through the teeth with awesomness!

  • November 14, 2013 at 9:04 pm
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    Star wars 7 will indeed make 2 billion why? If Thor 2 made 31 million opening day then star wars 7 will make 50-80 million in it’s first day. Also the movie will be filmed in 3d and Imax no doubt, these are also high priced tickets. Thor in 2 days made 80ish million. So these figures will make it possible to do 2-3billion world wide…

    • November 15, 2013 at 4:23 pm
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      Especially around the Holidays when the weather is cold, spirits are high and going to the movies with friends and family is a lot more common. 2 billion is a very realistic estimation for over-all earnings.

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